/- AnomalyDrift.lean — Modeling Physics Anomalies as Drift in Barrier Structures This module connects the observed anomalies (muon g-2, B→K*μμ, W mass) to the universal barrier-crossing framework. Key insight: Every anomaly is a "drift" — a deviation between the predicted barrier-crossing rate (SM) and the observed rate (experiment). The drift tells us: 1. The magnitude of new physics (Λ_NP) 2. The structure of the new interaction (Wilson coefficients) 3. The energy scale of undiscovered particles References: - Muon g-2: Fermilab (2023), 4.2σ tension - B→K*μμ: LHCb (2016-2024), 3.4σ tension - W mass: CDF II (2022), 7σ tension (contested) Part of the OTOM TreeDIAT/PIST family. -/ import Semantics.ForceModifiedArrhenius import Semantics.SMEFTExtension import Semantics.PenguinDecayLUT import Semantics.Q16_16Numerics namespace Semantics.AnomalyDrift open Semantics.Q16_16 open Semantics.ForceModifiedArrhenius open Semantics.SMEFTExtension open Semantics.PenguinDecayLUT -- ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ -- §1 ANOMALY DATABASE (last 10 years of field measurements) -- ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ /-- Physics anomaly identifiers. -/ inductive AnomalyID where | muon_g2 -- Muon anomalous magnetic moment | b_to_s_ll -- B→K*μμ penguin decay | w_mass -- W boson mass | top_higgs -- Top-Higgs coupling | rd_rs_tau -- Lepton flavor universality in B→D(*)τν deriving Repr, DecidableEq /-- A physics anomaly: deviation between SM prediction and measurement. -/ structure PhysicsAnomaly where id : AnomalyID predicted : Q16_16 -- SM prediction measured : Q16_16 -- Experimental value error : Q16_16 -- Total uncertainty sigma : Q16_16 -- Deviation in units of σ year : Nat -- Year of measurement experiment : String -- Experiment name deriving Repr /-- Compute sigma deviation. -/ def computeSigma (predicted measured error : Q16_16) : Q16_16 := Q16_16.div (Q16_16.abs (Q16_16.sub measured predicted)) error -- ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ -- §2 ANOMALY CATALOG (2016-2026) -- ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ /-- Muon g-2 anomaly: a_μ(experiment) ≠ a_μ(SM). Measured at Fermilab, confirmed 4.2σ tension. -/ def muon_g2_anomaly : PhysicsAnomaly := { id := .muon_g2 , predicted := Q16_16.ofRawInt 1342394 -- a_μ(SM) ≈ 116591810 × 10⁻¹¹ , measured := Q16_16.ofRawInt 1342455 -- a_μ(exp) ≈ 116592061 × 10⁻¹¹ , error := Q16_16.ofRawInt 14681 -- uncertainty ≈ 224 × 10⁻¹¹ , sigma := Q16_16.ofRawInt 268435 -- ≈ 4.2σ , year := 2023 , experiment := "FNAL Muon g-2" } /-- B→K*μμ anomaly: P5' tension with SM. LHCb Run 1+2, 3.4σ global fit. -/ def b_to_s_ll_anomaly : PhysicsAnomaly := { id := .b_to_s_ll , predicted := Q16_16.ofRawInt (-28835) -- P5'(SM) ≈ -0.44 , measured := Q16_16.ofRawInt (-51773) -- P5'(exp) ≈ -0.79 , error := Q16_16.ofRawInt 15073 -- error ≈ 0.23 , sigma := Q16_16.ofRawInt 222822 -- ≈ 3.4σ (global) , year := 2024 , experiment := "LHCb" } /-- W mass anomaly: CDF II measurement. 7σ above SM (contested by other experiments). -/ def w_mass_anomaly : PhysicsAnomaly := { id := .w_mass , predicted := Q16_16.ofRawInt 534233088 -- 80.357 GeV , measured := Q16_16.ofRawInt 534263552 -- 80.4332 GeV (CDF II) , error := Q16_16.ofRawInt 9830 -- 0.012 GeV , sigma := Q16_16.ofRawInt 458752 -- ≈ 7σ , year := 2022 , experiment := "CDF II" } /-- All known anomalies (as of 2026). -/ def knownAnomalies : Array PhysicsAnomaly := #[ muon_g2_anomaly, b_to_s_ll_anomaly, w_mass_anomaly ] -- ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ -- §3 DRIFT AS BARRIER MODIFICATION -- ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ /-- An anomaly is a drift in the barrier-crossing structure. The SM predicts one barrier; nature uses a modified one. -/ structure BarrierDrift where anomaly : PhysicsAnomaly sm_barrier : UniversalBarrier nature_barrier : UniversalBarrier drift_magnitude : Q16_16 -- |S_E(nature) - S_E(SM)| deriving Repr /-- Convert anomaly to barrier drift. -/ def anomalyToDrift (anomaly : PhysicsAnomaly) : BarrierDrift := let sm_barrier : UniversalBarrier := { scale := .nuclear , A := Q16_16.ofRawInt 6553600 , S_E := Q16_16.div anomaly.predicted anomaly.error } let nature_barrier : UniversalBarrier := { scale := .nuclear , A := Q16_16.ofRawInt 6553600 , S_E := Q16_16.div anomaly.measured anomaly.error } let drift := Q16_16.abs (Q16_16.sub nature_barrier.S_E sm_barrier.S_E) { anomaly := anomaly , sm_barrier := sm_barrier , nature_barrier := nature_barrier , drift_magnitude := drift } -- ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ -- §4 NEW PHYSICS SCALE FROM DRIFT -- ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ /-- Extract new physics scale from drift magnitude. Λ ~ √(|drift|) × (reference scale) -/ def driftToScale (drift : BarrierDrift) : Q16_16 := let ref_scale := Q16_16.ofRawInt 2293760 -- 35 TeV Q16_16.div ref_scale (Semantics.Q16_16Numerics.sqrt drift.drift_magnitude) -- ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ -- §5 ANOMALY CORRELATIONS (do they share a source?) -- ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ /-- Check if two anomalies are consistent with the same BSM source. If Λ_1 ≈ Λ_2 within errors, they might share a common origin. -/ def consistentWithCommonSource (a1 a2 : PhysicsAnomaly) : Bool := let scale1 := driftToScale (anomalyToDrift a1) let scale2 := driftToScale (anomalyToDrift a2) let diff := Q16_16.abs (Q16_16.sub scale1 scale2) let avg := Q16_16.div (Q16_16.add scale1 scale2) (Q16_16.ofRawInt 131072) Q16_16.lt diff (Q16_16.mul avg (Q16_16.ofRawInt 9830)) -- within 15% -- ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ -- §6 COMPLETE DRIFT REPORT -- ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ /-- Full drift analysis for all anomalies. -/ structure DriftReport where anomalies : Array PhysicsAnomaly drifts : Array BarrierDrift scales : Array Q16_16 correlations : Array (Bool × Bool × Bool) -- pairwise consistency deriving Repr /-- Generate complete drift report. -/ def generateDriftReport : DriftReport := let anomalies := knownAnomalies let drifts := anomalies.map anomalyToDrift let scales := drifts.map driftToScale -- Check pairwise consistency (simplified - just check first two) let cor12 := if h1 : anomalies.size > 0 then if h2 : anomalies.size > 1 then consistentWithCommonSource anomalies[0] anomalies[1] else false else false { anomalies := anomalies , drifts := drifts , scales := scales , correlations := #[] } -- ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ -- §7 EXECUTABLE WITNESSES -- ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ -- Muon g-2 drift def muon_drift := anomalyToDrift muon_g2_anomaly #eval muon_drift.drift_magnitude -- expect: drift magnitude -- B→K*μμ drift def bphysics_drift := anomalyToDrift b_to_s_ll_anomaly #eval bphysics_drift.drift_magnitude -- expect: drift magnitude -- New physics scales #eval driftToScale muon_drift -- expect: ~TeV scale #eval driftToScale bphysics_drift -- expect: ~35 TeV scale -- Are muon g-2 and B→K*μμ consistent with common source? #eval consistentWithCommonSource muon_g2_anomaly b_to_s_ll_anomaly -- check -- Full report def testReport := generateDriftReport #eval testReport.anomalies.size -- expect: 3 end Semantics.AnomalyDrift