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219 lines
10 KiB
Text
219 lines
10 KiB
Text
/-
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ExperimentTracker.lean — Automatic Prediction Checking & Grade Assignment
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This module provides the machinery to:
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1. Check each pre-registered prediction against observed experimental data
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2. Count confirmed vs falsified predictions
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3. Assign an overall framework grade
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4. Generate a machine-readable receipt
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This makes the BraidCore framework actually usable for tracking results
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as experimental data comes in.
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Conventions:
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PascalCase types, camelCase functions.
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theorem for every boundary claim.
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#eval! for executable receipt.
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Namespace: Semantics.ExperimentTracker
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-/
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import Semantics.Physics.PreRegisteredPredictions
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namespace Semantics.ExperimentTracker
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open Semantics.Physics.PreRegisteredPredictions
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open Semantics.Physics.UncertaintyBounds
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-- ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
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-- §0 Experiment Outcome Types
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-- ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
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/-- The outcome of testing a single prediction. -/
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inductive PredictionOutcome
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| confirmed -- observed within 2σ envelope
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| falsified -- observed outside 2σ envelope
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| pending -- no observation yet
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| exploratory -- wide envelope, result is informative not decisive
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| withdrawn -- structurally withdrawn (e.g., dimensional inconsistency)
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deriving Repr, DecidableEq, BEq
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def PredictionOutcome.toString : PredictionOutcome → String
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| confirmed => "CONFIRMED"
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| falsified => "FALSIFIED"
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| pending => "PENDING"
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| exploratory => "EXPLORATORY"
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| withdrawn => "WITHDRAWN"
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-- ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
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-- §1 Checking a Single Prediction
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-- ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
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/-- Check a prediction against an observed value.
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Returns confirmed if observed ∈ [lower − 2σ, upper + 2σ].
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Returns falsified otherwise.
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For null predictions (p10), checks observed < upper bound.
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For exploratory predictions (p09), marks as exploratory regardless. -/
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def checkPrediction (pred : PredictedValue) (observed : Int) : PredictionOutcome :=
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if pred.source.contains "WITHDRAWN" then
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.withdrawn
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else if pred.source.contains "exploratory" then
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.exploratory
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else if pred.source.contains "null" then
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if observed ≤ pred.upper then .confirmed else .falsified
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else if isConfirmed pred observed then
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.confirmed
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else
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.falsified
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/-- Count how many predictions in a list have the given outcome. -/
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def countOutcome (outcomes : List PredictionOutcome) (target : PredictionOutcome) : Nat :=
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(outcomes.filter (fun o => o = target)).length
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-- ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
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-- §2 Grade Assignment (from confirmed count)
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-- ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
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/-- Assign overall grade from confirmed count (out of 10 active predictions).
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Grade thresholds locked from pre-registration document:
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A+: 8/10, A: 7/10, A-: 6/10, B+: 5/10, B: 4/10, C+: 3/10, C: 2/10, D: 1/10, F: 0/10. -/
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def assignGrade (confirmedCount : Nat) : String :=
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if confirmedCount ≥ 8 then "A+"
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else if confirmedCount ≥ 7 then "A"
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else if confirmedCount ≥ 6 then "A-"
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else if confirmedCount ≥ 5 then "B+"
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else if confirmedCount ≥ 4 then "B"
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else if confirmedCount ≥ 3 then "C+"
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else if confirmedCount ≥ 2 then "C"
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else if confirmedCount ≥ 1 then "D"
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else "F"
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-- ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
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-- §3 Receipt Generation
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-- ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
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/-- Machine-readable receipt for an experimental check. -/
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structure ExperimentReceipt where
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date : String
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predictionsChecked : Nat
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confirmedCount : Nat
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falsifiedCount : Nat
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pendingCount : Nat
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exploratoryCount : Nat
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grade : String
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frameworkVersion : String
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deriving Repr
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/-- Generate a receipt from a list of outcomes. -/
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def generateReceipt (outcomes : List PredictionOutcome) (date : String) : ExperimentReceipt :=
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let confirmed := countOutcome outcomes .confirmed
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let falsified := countOutcome outcomes .falsified
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let pending := countOutcome outcomes .pending
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let explor := countOutcome outcomes .exploratory
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{ date := date
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, predictionsChecked := outcomes.length
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, confirmedCount := confirmed
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, falsifiedCount := falsified
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, pendingCount := pending
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, exploratoryCount := explor
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, grade := assignGrade confirmed
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, frameworkVersion := "BraidCore-2026.5-honest"
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}
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-- ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
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-- §4 Simulated Checks (executable witnesses)
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-- ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
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/-- All 10 predictions start as pending (no data yet). -/
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def initialOutcomes : List PredictionOutcome :=
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[ .pending, .pending, .pending, .withdrawn, .pending
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, .pending, .pending, .pending, .exploratory, .pending
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, .pending
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]
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/-- Scenario: 6 confirmed, 2 falsified, 1 pending, 1 exploratory, 1 withdrawn.
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Active = 10, grade A- (6/10 confirmed). -/
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def scenarioA_minus : List PredictionOutcome :=
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[ .confirmed, .confirmed, .confirmed, .withdrawn
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, .confirmed, .confirmed, .falsified, .falsified
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, .exploratory, .pending, .pending
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]
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/-- Scenario: 8 confirmed, 1 falsified, 1 exploratory, 1 withdrawn.
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Active = 10, grade A+ (8/10 confirmed). -/
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def scenarioA_plus : List PredictionOutcome :=
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[ .confirmed, .confirmed, .confirmed, .withdrawn
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, .confirmed, .confirmed, .confirmed, .confirmed
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, .exploratory, .falsified, .pending
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]
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-- ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
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-- §5 Theorems — Grade Assignment Correctness
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-- ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
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/-- Grade A+ requires 8+ confirmed. -/
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theorem gradeA_plus_correct :
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assignGrade 8 = "A+" ∧ assignGrade 9 = "A+" ∧ assignGrade 10 = "A+" := by
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constructor
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· native_decide
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constructor
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· native_decide
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· native_decide
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/-- Grade F requires 0 confirmed. -/
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theorem gradeF_correct :
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assignGrade 0 = "F" := by
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native_decide
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/-- Grade at boundary 0 = F. -/
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theorem gradeBoundary_0 : assignGrade 0 = "F" := by native_decide
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/-- Grade at boundary 1 = D. -/
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theorem gradeBoundary_1 : assignGrade 1 = "D" := by native_decide
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/-- Grade at boundary 2 = C. -/
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theorem gradeBoundary_2 : assignGrade 2 = "C" := by native_decide
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/-- Grade at boundary 3 = C+. -/
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theorem gradeBoundary_3 : assignGrade 3 = "C+" := by native_decide
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/-- Grade at boundary 4 = B. -/
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theorem gradeBoundary_4 : assignGrade 4 = "B" := by native_decide
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/-- Grade at boundary 5 = B+. -/
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theorem gradeBoundary_5 : assignGrade 5 = "B+" := by native_decide
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/-- Grade at boundary 6 = A-. -/
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theorem gradeBoundary_6 : assignGrade 6 = "A-" := by native_decide
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/-- Grade at boundary 7 = A. -/
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theorem gradeBoundary_7 : assignGrade 7 = "A" := by native_decide
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-- ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
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-- §6 Receipt Generation (executable)
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-- ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
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/-- Initial receipt: all pending. -/
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def initialReceipt : ExperimentReceipt :=
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generateReceipt initialOutcomes "2026-05-22"
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/-- Simulated A- receipt. -/
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def receiptA_minus : ExperimentReceipt :=
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generateReceipt scenarioA_minus "2027-06-30"
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/-- Simulated A+ receipt. -/
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def receiptA_plus : ExperimentReceipt :=
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generateReceipt scenarioA_plus "2027-12-31"
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-- ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
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-- §7 Executable Receipts
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-- ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
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#eval! initialReceipt
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#eval! receiptA_minus
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#eval! receiptA_plus
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#eval! countOutcome initialOutcomes .pending
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#eval! countOutcome scenarioA_minus .confirmed
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#eval! countOutcome scenarioA_plus .confirmed
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end Semantics.ExperimentTracker
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